Business Planning & Projections for Your Venue - What You Need to Know
The Myth in the Wedding Venue Industry
After hosting over 500 weddings and coaching more than 200 venues across North America, I'm seeing a troubling trend: New venue owners are being fed unrealistic expectations about annual booking numbers. Yesterday, I heard someone casually suggest that 60-100 weddings in your first year is "normal." Let me be clear: it's not.
The Reality of Wedding Venue Numbers
At my venue, we host about 105 weddings annually. This means:
Seven months of the year with Friday, Saturday, and Sunday events
Careful management of our team's capacity
Years of building our reputation and systems
And here's the thing: we're in the top 3% of venues by volume. When I hear industry "experts" telling new owners to project 130-150 weddings annually in their business plans, I have to speak up.
Why These Projections Can Be Dangerous
The wedding venue landscape has changed dramatically:
The number of new venues isn't slowing down, even post-2020
Many established venues that once did 130+ weddings annually are seeing declining numbers
Market saturation is making it harder to be a breakthrough venue
The Debt Trap No One Talks About
Here's what should keep you up at night: Taking on massive debt based on unrealistic booking projections. If your business model requires 40, 60, or 80 weddings annually just to service your debt, you need to pause and reassess.
Remember: Once you take on venue debt, there's usually no quick exit strategy. I'm seeing owners commit to 20+ year loans based on fantasy numbers.
Finding Real Market Opportunity
Success in today's market isn't about building another beautiful venue – it's about meeting unmet needs:
Identify genuine market gaps
Understand what couples in your area are missing
Build your venue around solving specific problems
For example, in my St. Louis market, I can identify specific opportunities for new venues. But they're not based on "I like industrial spaces" or "barn venues are popular." They're based on deep market analysis and understanding of unmet couple needs.
The Smart Approach to Venue Planning
Instead of "build it and they will come," successful new venues need to:
Research market opportunities before construction
Design their business model around realistic numbers
Create systems and processes that support sustainable growth
Build their venue to meet specific, underserved market needs
A Personal Note to Prospective Owners
If you're considering entering this industry, know that it's still possible to be successful. But you need to:
Be realistic about your projections
Understand your market deeply
Create a sustainable business model
Build your venue around actual market needs, not just personal preferences
Ready to build a successful wedding venue, but not sure where to start? The Venue Pathfinder® is your roadmap. A self-study program walking you step-by-step through the critical initial steps of building your own Wedding Venue Business.
The Bottom Line
Is it possible to do 150 weddings annually? Yes. Should you build your business plan around that number? Absolutely not. The most successful venues aren't necessarily the ones doing the most weddings – they're the ones built on realistic projections and sustainable business models.
Want to dive deeper into understanding realistic venue projections and market opportunities? Join our Venue Pathfinder® program, specifically designed to help prospective owners evaluate and plan their venue business realistically.